Civics 101: Navigating the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination
A technical deep-dive unpacking the Democratic Convention and selection process
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Let’s jump right in.
How it began…
In a strategic pivot reshaping the Democratic landscape, President Biden withdrew from the 2024 race on July 21, 2024, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris amidst mounting internal pressure. But more importantly, his decision to withdraw from the presidential race exemplifies putting country above personal ambition. Biden is still the President of the United States until the afternoon of January 20, 2025.
Strategically, why Harris?
She is the only Democratic candidate vetted and tested on the national stage.
She can inherit the Biden campaign organization and war chest, as her name is listed on FEC filings for Biden's campaign, allowing her to use the funds and infrastructure without starting from scratch.
She has evolved into one of the best messengers in the party on issues that will define this campaign (abortion, democracy, rule of law).
This move, three weeks before the Democratic National Convention, allowed the party to quickly unify. Harris raised $100 million in the first 24 hours and secured endorsements from over 100 Congressional members, including at least 82% of all the Democratic Senators (41 secured), Representatives (181 secured), and Governors (19 secured).
Notably, however, some key leaders like Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, and Barack Obama have not yet endorsed her. This hesitation reflects the desire for a legitimate and transparent nomination process, ensuring that any contest for the nomination is fair and perceived as such by the broader party and electorate.
When you vote in a presidential primary election or caucus, you are voting for the state delegates who then promises to vote for the candidate on your behalf at the convention. 14 million people voted for Biden DELEGATES, not for Biden himself. Now that Biden is out, his committed delegates are not bound to back anyone specific.
When a sitting president withdraws from the race, the Democratic Party must swiftly navigate its complex nomination process to ensure a seamless transition.
Important:
A political party nominee for President is selected at their party’s National Convention.
Joe Biden was not the Democratic nominee for President before he dropped out.
As of the date of this writing (7/23/24), Kamala Harris is also not yet the Democratic nominee for President.
Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for President because he formally accepted the nomination last week at the Republican Convention.
Why are Democrats Pushing for a Virtual Roll Call before the Convention?
The DNC initially planned to nominate Biden via a virtual roll call vote by August 7th to address an issue in Ohio law that could have excluded Biden from the ballot.
Although state lawmakers have since resolved this specific problem, the DNC still aims to proceed with the virtual roll call to prevent similar issues in other states, such as California and Washington.
Voting must conclude by August 7th, with the Democratic Convention starting on August 19th. This timeline poses challenges, as holding a vote more than two weeks before the convention complicates the prospect of an open convention.
The Democratic National Convention
The Democratic National Convention (DNC) plays a crucial role in the nomination process. It is scheduled to take place from August 19–22, 2024. The deadline for finalizing the nomination process is crucial, as early voting begins in some states in September. It will bring together delegates from all states to officially nominate the Democratic candidate for President.
Delegates are selected through state primaries and caucuses, with each state allocated a certain number of delegates based on its population and Democratic support. Colorado has 79 delegates. These states below play a significant role in the delegate allocation process, given their large delegate counts and impact on the overall nomination outcome:
California has 424 delegates
Texas has 244
New York has 268
Florida has 224
Pennsylvania has 159
North Carolina has 168
Ohio has 147
Tennessee was the first state to pledge its 70 delegates to Harris, and North Carolina’s 168 delegates unanimously voted to endorse and support Harris.
The DNC operates under rules ensuring proportional representation, meaning delegates are apportioned to candidates based on the percentage of the vote they receive in each state, provided they meet a minimum threshold, typically 15%.
At the convention, delegates will cast their votes. In the first ballot, only pledged delegates vote. If a candidate secures a majority (1,991 out of 3,979), they win the nomination.
Here’s how it works.
Step 1:
Any person who wants to become the Democratic nominee for President must submit a request that includes between 300 and 600 signatures from voting delegates supporting their nomination. This gets you certified.
Step 2:
Then 20 minutes of nominating speeches for every certified candidate prior to voting on the first ballot (which is just a roll call vote).
Step 3:
First Ballot - only pledged delegates will vote alphabetically by state for the candidate they like.
There are two types of delegates—pledged and superdelegates (also known as “Automatic”). There are 4,747 total number of Democratic delegates.
Pledged delegates (3,937) are allocated based on primary and caucus results in each state, committed to a specific candidate based on those outcomes.
Vice President Harris, already holding more than the required 1,969 pledged delegates to secure the nomination on the first ballot out of a total of 3,937 pledged delegates, is well-positioned for the Democratic nomination. Her team made thousands of calls to consolidate support and secure these delegates, ensuring she can seamlessly inherit the campaign infrastructure and funds necessary for a robust general election strategy.
Step 4:
If the process extends, Harris would need 2,379 delegates when including superdelegates in subsequent ballots, with 740 superdelegates potentially joining the vote after the first round.
Superdelegates, comprising party leaders and elected officials, enter the fray only if no candidate achieves a majority in the initial round.
Ballot rounds continue until someone receives the majority.
Harris’s swift consolidation of support, including significant superdelegate endorsements, places her in a strong position to meet these thresholds, ensuring she can seamlessly inherit the campaign infrastructure and funds necessary for a robust general election strategy.
As mentioned earlier, the Democratic Party has the option to hold a virtual vote to lock in the nominee before the convention begins, providing a potential path to avoid a contested convention. But if no candidate wins on the first ballot, a contested convention ensues…
Contested Convention
If there is a contested convention, superdelegates—party leaders and elected officials—join the voting process from the second ballot onwards. This is designed to help ensure a nominee is selected efficiently, reflecting the collective will of both the primary voters and the party establishment.
In 1968, President Lyndon B. Johnson's unexpected withdrawal from the race led to significant political turmoil and an open convention where Vice President Hubert Humphrey ultimately secured the nomination amidst widespread party division.
After facing strong opposition due to the Vietnam War, Johnson announced on March 31, 1968, that he would not seek re-election.
This decision triggered an open convention in Chicago, marked by intense protests and internal party divisions.
Vice President Hubert Humphrey, who entered the race late, ultimately secured the nomination after multiple ballots, despite not participating in the primary elections.
This period highlighted the deep ideological rifts within the Democratic Party and the complexities of navigating a contested convention.
Similarly, the 1952 Democratic Convention saw Adlai Stevenson winning the nomination after multiple ballots.
These events underscore the potential for dramatic shifts and the critical importance of strategic decision-making during the convention.
Kamala Harris’ ability to quickly amass a majority of pledged delegates, alongside substantial superdelegate backing, positions her favorably to secure the nomination, either on the first ballot or through subsequent rounds if necessary.
Ensuring a Smooth Transition
The transition from Biden to Harris involves more than just delegate counts. It includes transferring campaign infrastructure, staff, and resources.
This includes transferring Biden’s extensive campaign infrastructure, such as voter outreach programs, data analytics, and fundraising networks, to Harris’s team.
Integration involves reallocating staff roles, merging strategic plans, and ensuring that all technological and operational systems are aligned.
Harris's campaign will inherit Biden's $91 million in campaign funds and utilize the established field offices and volunteer networks.
This continuity is vital for maintaining momentum and operational efficiency, directly impacting voter mobilization and overall campaign effectiveness in the general election.
Navigating the Democratic nomination process involves a complex interplay of delegate allocation, strategic endorsements, and logistical coordination.
What’s Next - who’s gonna be the VP?
Attention will soon shift to her potential vice presidential picks.
Harris faces certain constraints in her choice of a running mate due to constitutional and practical considerations that narrow down the field of viable candidates, making the selection process more complex.
Harris must choose a running mate who not only complements her strengths but also fits within these logistical and constitutional frameworks to ensure a smooth and strategic campaign.
Examples of her constraints:
Geographical Limitations: Gov. Gavin Newsom of California is a more challenging candidate because he is also from California, which creates issues in the Electoral College. There is a rule preventing electors from voting for two people from the electors’ home state. This rule effectively disqualifies Newsom unless they can navigate this constitutional hurdle.
Congressional Representatives: The constitution requires that every representative be elected. Therefore, Harris is unlikely to choose a sitting representative because they would have to be replaced by a special election. The Democrats are hoping to flip the House by winning a majority of the seats this election, so risking even one seat would make that harder.
Senatorial Considerations: To maintain their slim majority in the Senate, Harris is unlikely to pick a senator who does not live in a state with a Democratic governor. This is because most states allow the governor to appoint a temporary replacement. So, she could choose a senator from a state that has a Democratic governor who would then replace the senator with another Democrat. This ensures that the Democrats do not lose a crucial Senate seat.
Several viable names have emerged, each with unique strengths:
Gov. Andy Beshear (Kentucky): A two-term governor of a deeply red state, Beshear opposes strict abortion bans, appealing to moderate voters.
Gov. Roy Cooper (North Carolina): Elected governor in 2016 and 2020, Cooper has bipartisan appeal in a crucial swing state and shares a legal background with Harris.
Gov. Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania): Shapiro has garnered support from PA Republicans, demonstrating cross-party appeal in another pivotal swing state.
Gov. JB Pritzker (Illinois): A vocal supporter of key Democratic issues like abortion and LGBTQ rights, Pritzker also brings substantial financial resources.
Sen. Mark Kelly (Arizona): Representing a major swing state, Kelly’s military background and recent strong election performance make him a strategic choice.
Hope you enjoyed this breakdown. I felt that understanding these procedural intricacies is crucial for you to fully appreciate the strategic decisions shaping the path of this election and future ones.
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